The Oscar Race Just Got a Lot More Interesting: Sinners Shatters Records, But Can It Dethrone One Battle After Another?
The 98th Academy Awards nominations are in, and the race for Best Picture has taken a thrilling turn. Sinners, a film that has shattered records with an astounding 16 nominations, is challenging the widely held belief that One Battle After Another is the frontrunner. But here's where it gets controversial: while Sinners has dominated the nominations, history shows that the film with the most nods doesn't always take home the top prize. And this is the part most people miss: only six times in the past 16 years has the most-nominated film won Best Picture.
Sinners' achievement is undeniable. It has secured nominations in every plausible category, a feat unmatched by its top contenders. One Battle After Another, for instance, missed out on Best Actress, while Hamnet was snubbed for Best Supporting Actor, Cinematography, and Film Editing. This near-sweep by Sinners feels like a statement, but is it enough to sway the Academy?
The debate is further complicated by the fact that both Sinners and One Battle After Another are distributed by Warner Bros., which has led all studios with 30 nominations. This unique situation raises questions about how the studio will promote its two frontrunners, especially given the personal stakes of the filmmakers and actors involved.
Scott’s Predictions: A Deep Dive into the Oscar Races
Scott’s first post-nominations analysis provides a comprehensive look at all 24 Oscar categories, based on screenings, campaign analyses, voter insights, and historical data. His projections are not personal preferences but calculated predictions of what the Academy will choose.
Best Picture
- Sinners (Warner Bros.) - Ryan Coogler, Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian
- One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) - Paul Thomas Anderson, Sara Murphy, Adam Somner
- Hamnet (Focus) - Nicolas Gonda, Pippa Harris, Liza Marshall, Sam Mendes, Steven Spielberg
- Sentimental Value (Neon) - Maria Ekerhovd, Andrea Berensten Ottmar
- Marty Supreme (A24) - Ronald Bronstein, Eli Bush, Timothée Chalamet, Anthony Katagas, Josh Safdie
- Train Dreams (Netflix) - Michael Heimler, Will Janowitz, Marissa McMahon, Ashley Schlaifer, Teddy Schwarzman
- Frankenstein (Netflix) - J. Miles Dale, Guillermo del Toro, Scott Stuber
- F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) - Jerry Bruckheimer, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski, Chad Oman, Brad Pitt
- The Secret Agent (Neon) - Emilie Lesclaux
- Bugonia (Focus) - Ed Guiney, Lars Knudsen, Yorgos Lanthimos, Andrew Lowe, Emma Stone
Best Director
- Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) - Warner Bros.
- Ryan Coogler (Sinners) - Warner Bros.
- Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) - Focus
- Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) - Neon
- Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) - A24
Best Actor
- Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) - A24
- Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) - Warner Bros.
- Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) - Warner Bros.
- Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) - Neon
- Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) - Sony Classics
Best Actress
- Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) - Focus
- Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) - Focus
- Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) - A24
- Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) - Neon
- Emma Stone (Bugonia) - Focus
Best Supporting Actor
- Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) - Neon
- Delroy Lindo (Sinners) - Warner Bros.
- Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) - Netflix
- Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another) - Warner Bros.
- Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) - Warner Bros.
Best Supporting Actress
- Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) - Warner Bros.
- Amy Madigan (Weapons) - Warner Bros.
- Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) - Warner Bros.
- Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) - Neon
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) - Neon
Best Adapted Screenplay
- One Battle After Another - Paul Thomas Anderson
- Hamnet - Maggie O’Farrell & Chloé Zhao
- Train Dreams - Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
- Bugonia - Will Tracy
- Frankenstein - Guillermo del Toro
Best Original Screenplay
- Sinners - Ryan Coogler
- Sentimental Value - Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
- Marty Supreme - Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
- It Was Just an Accident - Jafar Panahi
- Blue Moon - Robert Kaplow
Best International Feature
- Norway - Sentimental Value (Neon)
- Brazil - The Secret Agent (Neon)
- France - It Was Just an Accident (Neon)
- Tunisia - The Voice of Hind Rajab (Willa)
- Spain - Sirāt (Neon)
Best Documentary Feature
- The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)
- The Alabama Solution (HBO)
- Mr. Nobody Against Putin (Kino Lorber)
- Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple)
- Cutting Through Rocks (seeking U.S. distribution)
Best Animated Feature
- KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix)
- Zootopia 2 (Disney)
- Arco (Neon)
- Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS)
- Elio (Disney/Pixar)
Thought-Provoking Question: With Sinners and One Battle After Another both tackling race in America, does the Academy's choice reflect a preference for one narrative over the other, or will the films' shared distributor influence the outcome? Share your thoughts in the comments!
The final round of Oscars voting begins on February 26, with the ceremony hosted by Conan O’Brien on March 15. Will Sinners' record-breaking nominations translate into a Best Picture win, or will One Battle After Another maintain its early momentum? The race is on, and the world is watching.
